Tianbang shares (002124) annual report comments: the low point has been lightly loaded to welcome the cycle reversal

Tianbang shares (002124) annual report comments: the low point has been lightly loaded to welcome the cycle reversal

Investment Highlights Event: Tianbang shares achieved revenue of 45 in 2018.
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1.9 billion (+47.

63%), net profit profit attributable to mother 5.

7.2 billion (-318.

19%), net profit after deduction can be increased.

6.1 billion (-381.

28%).

Revenue in the first quarter of 201912.

45 billion (+47.

64%), net profit attributable to mothers may increase.

35 billion (-1141.

95%), after deducting non-return to mother’s net profit income.

8.2 billion (-1058.

87%).

The volume of slaughtering grows rapidly, the cost continues to improve, and the sluggish pig price has led to a significant improvement in the breeding business.

In 2018, the company slid 2.17 million pigs (+ 114%), of which 203 were slaughtered by fat pigs.

70,000 piglets were on the market.

20,000 heads.

Farming business income 2.

8 billion (+73.

0%), the average selling price of 12.

2 yuan / kg (-18.南京桑拿网

3%).

In the first three quarters of 2018, the breeding cost decreased by about 6%. In the fourth quarter, some of the company ‘s fattening pigs were slaughtered, and breeding pigs could not be transported. This caused the breeding cost to rise, and the total breeding cost was about 12.

9 yuan / kg, a drop of about 2 a year.

0%, a total of 2 farming operations are expected.

900 million.

2018 feed sales 62 additives (+32.

4%), of which 21 were aquatic product sales.

4 positive (+34.

1%), the profit of feed business is expected to be about 0.

700 million.

Vaccine income1.

100 million (+2.

4%), net profit is about 0.

9 billion.

Food, engineering business is expected to have small expenses.

China Mobility’s equity and interests were fully accrued for losses and will be lightly loaded in the future.The company holds China Dynamic Insurance 20.

4% equity, China Mobility has been delisted by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the company has made a total provision of 2 million assets for impairment.

The overdue of US $ 500 million loaned by the company’s equity investment fund to the actual controller of China Mobility has not been repaid.

10,000 yuan.

Inventory accrued by 1 megabyte.

In addition, accounts receivable and goodwill accrue 0 for asset impairment.

200000000.

A total of approximately 5 is provided for asset impairment + investment losses.

200000000.

The balance sheet expanded rapidly, supporting rapid development.

Company Q4 fixed assets 20.

600 million (+43.

9%).

Construction in progress 7.

700 million (+344.

7%), productive biological assets 5.

200 million (+43.

3%), we estimate that we can breed around 150,000 sows, breaking the support for the company’s rapid development.

According to the company’s assets and liabilities, it is estimated that about 3.5, 5.5 million heads will be listed in 2019-2020.

2019Q1 is at a low point in the industry, and the company is affected by price and cost in both directions.

Affected by the epidemic, the pig price reached a cyclical low from January 2019 to the Spring Festival, and the company’s average sales price of commercial pigs in the first quarter was only 11.

2 yuan / kg (-9.

9%).

In terms of cost, the company ‘s epidemic prevention expenditure has increased. Some reserved breeding pigs cannot be transferred outside and can only be sold as commercial pigs. Fatty pigs are released in advance or postponed.

In 2019Q1, the company’s hog slaughter was 76.

30,000 heads (+78.

9%) and sales income of 10.

10,000 yuan (+60.

5%), fattening pigs are expected to produce 740,000 heads, with a total cost of 13.

8 yuan / kg, the head is expected to 299 yuan, fat pigs are scheduled to about 2.

200 million; piglets are expected to be released 2.

30,000 heads, with an average price of 28.

5 yuan / kg, piglets are marginal.

The de-capacity of the industry is accelerating, and the pig price is expected to increase after 2019Q2.

After the holiday, the price of pigs in the North has recovered, the epidemic situation in the South has intensified, and retail investors are still sluggish.

In March, the number of live pigs on the market was reduced by 19% and 21%, which was a record high in February. In recent months, the sales volume of feed for pigs can be reduced by about 10-15%.The sales volume of piglet feed is about to double by about 15-20%. We expect the inventory to drop or further decline in the next two months. From Q2 2019, pig prices are expected to usher in a second wave of rapid growth.

Investment suggestion: The worst quarterly report has passed. The existing industry’s production capacity exceeds historical extremes. The pig price is expected to reach a record high. The company’s production capacity will expand rapidly.

We adjusted the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to 0.

34, 2.

04, 2.94 yuan, based on the closing price on April 23, 2019, the corresponding PE is: 61.

7, 10.

3, 7.

2 times, maintaining the level of “prudent overweight”.

Risk warning: pig price fluctuates, epidemic risk, less than expected, and raw material prices rise.