Longji shares (601012): photovoltaic leader set sail again

Longji shares (601012): photovoltaic leader set sail again
Industry space: The policy cycle is weakening, and high growth potential is prominent.In 2007, the world’s first GW-class market appeared, and by 2018, the number of GW-classes reached 13, and it continued to increase.The increase of GW-level markets, the weakening of single-market policy risks, and the increase in parity areas mean that photovoltaics have gradually entered an endogenous growth phase, coupled with a very low global photovoltaic penetration rate (the global photovoltaic share of energy consumption in 2018 was 0.95%), with great growth potential. Leader subversion: Weakening of technology cycles and heavy asset attributes, leading advantages of leading players appear.Historically, photovoltaic leaders have been subverted many times, which is essentially an asset-heavy industry in which the nature of the industry is rapid technological progress.In the medium term, as the front-runner accelerates technological progress, easing technological progress, at the same time, unit investment has declined, heavy asset attributes have weakened, and latecomer advantages have weakened. The first-mover advantage of the leader has emerged.Short-term prices may be better than expected.Monocrystalline wafers are a technology- and capital-intensive industry with first-mover advantages, which will lead to the introduction of an oligopoly competition in the industry.The company is one of the earliest domestic companies engaged in monocrystalline wafer technology research and production. The cost advantage brought by technological leadership is the company’s first-level core competitiveness in silicon wafers. In the first half of 2019, the company’s silicon non-silicon costs decreased by 31.75% to 0.8-0.9 yuan / W, leading the industry.In the long run, the company’s production capacity is expanded, non-silicon costs are reduced, and monocrystalline silicon wafers have obvious advantages.In the short term, although it is not 2020, the expansion of production has released a rhythm, the overall supply and demand situation is better, and the price may be better than expected. Components: Carry technology and brand advantages to expand and continue to expand.The pure component segmentation is an industry with slower technology iterations, lighter assets, and light assets. Companies with brand and channel advantages win, but leading component companies equalize upstream production capacity, and financial prudence and lean management required by battery companies are also competing for leading component companies.One of the advantages.The company’s core competitiveness is technology leadership and brand advantages. The company’s monocrystalline PERC battery and module conversion efficiency has repeatedly set industry records. At the same time, the company’s modules have obtained PV Module Tech financing rating AA rating, which has obvious brand advantages.In the long run, by leveraging industry efficiency and automation to increase the potential of the door industry, the company is expected to introduce technology and brand advantages to break through the industry’s homogeneous competition, create differentiated products, increase production capacity and replacement volume, and increase component market share.In the short term, the profit of monocrystalline modules is currently at the lowest level since 2018, and the industry is in the bottom range. The industry’s demand has increased so much that it has improved this profit. Investment suggestion: Partial domestic bidding demand in 2019 will be deferred until this year’s release, and combined overseas demand is booming. It is expected that global demand will increase by 32 in 2020.From 5% to 152GW, the company’s wafer and component batch volume increased rapidly, and the price of single crystal silicon wafers was better than expected.We expect the company to achieve a net profit of 51% in 2019-2021.46, 71.45 and 81.28 ppm, an increase of 101 each year.16%, 38.85%, 苏州夜网论坛 13.75%, the current sustainable corresponding PE for three years is 24, 17, 15 times, maintaining the “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: management risks brought by the accelerated expansion of business scale; international trade protection risks.

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